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Thursday, August 19, 2010

Loonie Rallies After BHP’s Potash Hostile Bid

Canadian DollarThe Canadian dollar rose as the North American stocks rallied after the hostile bid for the Potash Corp. by the BHP Billiton Ltd., which increased the appeal of the growth-linked assets.


The future for crude oil, Canada’s main export, slid as much as 2.6 percent to $73.83 on NYMEX, the lowest level since July 7th. The slump of the oil prices was overshadowed by the rally of the stocks after the BHP offered $130 in cash for each Potash share ($40 billion for the whole deal). The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 0.2 percent after it declined earlier.


The investors reduced bets that the Bank of Canada will raise the interest rates as the US economy shows the signs of the weakness. The forecasts delayed the parity of the Canadian dollar with its US counterpart till 2011.


USD/CAD traded at 1.0268 today as of 23:17 GMT after it opened at 1.0319. EUR/CAD fell to 1.3189 from the opening level of 1.3295.


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Japanese Yen Strengthens on Renewed Demand for Safety

Japanese yenThe Japanese yen rose today as the renewed concerns that the recovery of the global economy is losing the traction fueled the demand for the safer assets.


The experts say that Federal Reserve is expected to increase its purchasing of the bonds as the US economy may weaken. The recent improvement of the sentiment on the global markets wasn’t strong enough to completely remove the concerns for the global economy. The yen also strengthened as the concerns, that the policy makes will intervene to limit the currency’s gains, eased.


The gains of the yen were limited, nevertheless, by the rally of the stocks. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index gained 0.5 percent, following the previous decline.


USD/JPY traded at about 85.43 today as of 19:51 GMT after previously declined to 85.18. EUR/JPY traded at 109.89 after it reached the daily low of 109.58.


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Aussie Falls on Lower Wages Growth

Australian dollarThe Australian dollar fell today against the Japanese yen on the speculation that Japan’s central bank will refrain from curbing the yen’s gains and after Australia’s wages growth slowed. The Aussie also dropped versus the greenback.


The people, who claimed to be familiar with the plans of the Bank of Japan, said that the central bank has no intention to weaken the Japanese currency. The growth of the Australian Wage Price Index slowed from 0.9 percent in the first quarter of this year to 0.8 percent in the second quarter, while no change was expected.


AUD/USD traded 0.9024 today as of 10:07 GMT after opening at 0.9051 and falling to 0.8986. AUD/JPY traded at 76.98 after it opened at 77.40.


If you want to comment on the Australian and the New Zealand dollars’ recent action or have any questions regarding this currency, please, feel free to reply below.


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Wednesday, August 18, 2010

Thai Baht Rises on Outlook for Growth of Asian Economies

Thai bahtThe Thai baht went up today on the speculation that the fast growth of the Asian nations would attract more investors to the region, increasing the appeal of the Asian currencies.


The central banks of some Asian nations, including Thailand, raised the interest rates this year, making their currencies higher yielding than the currencies of the Group of the Seven Nations. The International Monetary Fund predicted that the Asian developing economies would grow 9.2 percent this year, compared to the 2.6 percent growth in the industrialized nations.


USD/THB traded near 31.63 today as of 8:16 GMT after opening at 31.75.


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Tuesday, August 10, 2010

Yuan Depreciates After Central Bank Lowered Reference Rate

Chinese yuanThe Chinese yuan declined today after the US currency rallied and the central bank lowered the reference rate; the increasing exports and the resulting trade surplus weren’t able to support the currency.


The exports grew 38.1 percent from the previous year to $145.5 billion, following the 43.9 percent increase in June. The trade surplus was $28.7 billion. The People’s Bank of China set the daily fixing at 6.7745 per dollar after the dollar advanced against 15 of 16 most traded currencies.


USD/CNY rose from 6.7684 to 6.7730 today as of 11:14 GMT.


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Canadian Dollar Fluctuates Before FOMC Meeting, Rises vs. Euro

Canadian DollarThe Canadian dollar fluctuated against the greenback before the FOMC meeting and gained versus the euro after the stocks and crude oil rallied, boosting the currencies related to the growth.


The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 0.6 percent today. September delivery for crude oil rose 1 percent to $81.53 a barrel in New York. Crude oil is main export of Canada. The Canadian currency tends to follow moves of stocks and commodities.


The last week’s bad news about the employment in Canada weakened the loonie. Now the markets await the FOMC decision as the quantitative easing may drive the greenback lower versus the Canadian currency.


USD/CAD traded at 1.0273 as of 23:03 GMT after opening at 1.0268 and jumping as high as 1.0299. EUR/CAD dropped to 1.3585 from the opening level of 1.3646.


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Yen Falls as Demand for Safety Weakens

Japanese yenThe Japanese currency fell today against the US dollar on the outlook that the Federal Reserve will introduce the additional stimulus, supporting the US economy. The yen also fell versus some higher-yielding currencies, including the Australian dollar, after the stocks rallied.


The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 0.3 percent and the Stoxx Europe 600 Index gained 1.4 percent. The European stocks rallied after the report showed that the German exports grew more than expected in June. The meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, at which the quantitative easing should be discussed, will occur tomorrow. The investors reduce their short before the meeting, anticipating the stronger dollar.


The policy makers of the Bank of Japan will also meet tomorrow. Some experts suggest that the policy makers will try to limit the yen’s appreciation. Even without intervention the Japanese currency can possibly decline below 85.00 per the US dollar.


USD/JPY rose to 85.85 today as of 18:55 GMT from the opening level of 85.37, while AUD/JPY went up from 78.43 to 78.66.


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Outlook for Euro Improves But Still Remains Pessimistic

EuroThe euro endured hard times this year as the financial crisis in the European Union made us question the very existence of the currency. Therefore, the rally it showed this summer was rather unexpected. The experts expected the rally to end soon, perhaps even this month. Does the outlook changed? Not much, though it became somewhat more bullish.


The bears point out that the countries such as Greece, Spain and Portugal can drag the EU economy to the bottom, causing the European shared currency to collapse. The good example of such viewpoint is the words of editor of the Gartman Letter:



The euro has had a spectacular bounce. Were all of the problems that were attendant and discussed and so obvious in February, March and April of this year, have they been alleviated? Not even slightly. The major trend for the euro is still toward disintegration.


The bulls say that the European economy more stable than perceived. Jean-Claude Trichet, the President of the European Central Bank, tries very hard to support such point of view, stating that “the available data for the third quarter are better than expected” and ”the market is functioning a little bit better”. The growth of the services and manufacturing industries in Europe and the strong Germany’s economy can be considered evidences of the improving economic situation in the EU. The IMF is planning to provide the next part (€9 billion) of the promised €750 billion bailout as Greece is performing measures to reduce the budget according to the agreement.


Despite all the good signs, and even as the US is becoming next major reason for the concerns, the sentiment among the economists still remains pessimistic for the euro. The rally may end any time and the speculations persist about the possible parity with the US dollar or even the disintegration of the 16-nation currency. The forecast were revised upward but the euro still expected to decline versus the greenback to 1.22 by the end of this year.


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NZ Dollar Drops as Central Bank May Stop Rates Increases

New Zealand dollarThe New Zealand dollar fell today after the report showed that the house prices increased with slower pace, causing the speculation that the central bank wouldn’t raise the interest rates next month.


The house prices in New Zealand grew 4.1 percent in July from a year earlier, following the growth by 5.2 percent in the previous month. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand announced, after it raised the key rate to 3 percent last month, that the slower economic growth prompts to slow the pace of the rates’ increases.


NZD/USD dropped from 0.7336 to 0.7313 today as of 9:58 GMT.


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South Korean Won Up on Outlook for Rates Hike & Inflation

South Korean wonThe South Korean won extended its rally for yet another day as the anticipation that the central bank would raise the interest rates increased the appeal of the currency.


The central bank increased the borrowing costs by the quarter percentage point on July 9 from the record low level of 2 percent. The forecasts promise the consumer prices in South Korea to rise by 2.8 percent in 2010, up from the previous estimates of 2.6 increase. The analysts say that the inflation pressure alone should push the won up even without the rates hike.


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Thursday, August 5, 2010

South Korean Won Rallies, Will Government Intervene?

South Korean wonThe South Korean won extended its gains for the fifth day after the macroeconomic data from the US eased the concerns about the global economic growth.


The yesterday�s report showed that the conditions of the service industries in the US were better than estimated and the report today expected to show that the number of jobless claims decreased. The government may intervene to limit the currency�s gains, but this month the won may continue to rise.


USD/KRW traded near 1,666.50 as of 8:54 GMT after opening at 1,167.60.


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Canadian Dollar Rises on Crude Oil & Employment Outlook

Canadian DollarThe Canadian dollar gained today as crude oil traded near its record levels and the Canadian employers added jobs for the seventh consecutive month according to the analysts� estimates.


Crude oil traded near $82.46 per barrel on NYMEX after it jumped to $82.97 per barrel, the highest level in almost three months. Crude oil is the main export for Canada. The analysts estimated that 12,500 jobs were added to the payrolls in the previous month, following the 93,200 increase in June. The Standard & Poor�s 500 index rose 0.3 percent.


The Canadian dollar is the best-performing currency today, a very good result considering how underperformed it was the last month. The main reason for the slack performance was the slower economic growth in the US, to which Canada ships near three quarters of its exports. Considering today�s good economic data from the US, the future looks bright for the loonie, but some economist recommend to be cautious about the loonie�s rally, as previous month gave too much reasons for the concerns to easily believe that the economy suddenly became much more stable.


USD/CAD fell to 1.0181 from 1.0231 as of 21:33 GMT, following its jump to 1.0270. EUR/CAD dropped from 1.3537 to 1.3398.


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Dollar Strengthens on Employment & Services PMI Reports

US DollarThe US currency rose today against the euro and the Japanese yen after the reports showed that the US employers added more jobs than expected and the service industries expanded with increasing pace.


The US non-farm payrolls increased by 42,000, as was reported by ADP Employer Services. The median forecast was the 38,000 growth. The non-manufacturing sector grew in July for the seventh consecutive month, as was shown by the non-manufacturing index, which registered 54.3 percent in July, compared to 53.8 percent registered in June. The figure above 50.0 indicates industry expansion, below indicates contraction.


The employment was the one of the main sources of concerns for the US citizens. Therefore, the good news from the labor market improved the outlook for the US economy significantly. The Federal Reserve acknowledges the slowdown of the economy, but may refrain from adding more stimulus after the reports suggested that the US economy is healthier than it looked previously.


EUR/USD traded near 1.3137 as of 17:13 GMT today after it opened at 1.3229. USD/JPY rose to 86.22 from 85.76 after slumping as low as 85.32.


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Rand Fall as Investors Shun Riskier Currencies

South African randThe South African rand fell today as the growing concerns about the global economy, caused by the signs of the US economic expansion�s slowdown, damped the demand for the currencies of the emerging markets.


The analysts predict that today�s report would show that the service industries in the US expanded with the slower pace than earlier. This forecast, together with yesterday�s unfavorable reports about the home sales, the factory orders and the personal spending, worsen already dark outlook for the global economy. The pessimistic sentiment of the traders makes them shun the riskier currencies, like the rand.


USD/ZAR jumped to 7.310 from the opening level of 7.269 today as of 10:25 GMT.


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NZ Dollar Weakens on Asian Stocks & Rates Outlook

New Zealand dollarThe New Zealand dollar weakened today against the US dollar and the Japanese yen after the Asian stocks fell and on the speculation that the central bank would increase the interest rates with slower pace.


The MSCI Asia Pacific Index of shares dropped 0.7 percent after the bad macroeconomic reports from the US caused concerns about the global economic growth. The New Zealand currency also slipped on the forecasts that tomorrow�s report would show that the jobless rate rose the last quarter, prompting the central bank to slow the pace of the rates increases.


NZD/USD fell to 0.7307 from 0.7340 as of 9:24 GMT today, while NZD/JPY dropped to about 62.47 from 62.94.


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Yen Rises on Growing Concerns for US Economy

Japanese yenThe Japanese yen went up to the highest level since November 2009 against the US dollar and advanced versus all other most traded currencies after the economic reports suggested that the US economy would require additional stimulus measures, spurring the risk aversion sentiment.


The pending home sales in the US unexpectedly dropped 2.6 percent in June, while the economist expected growth by 0.5 percent. The factory orders declined by 1.2 percent, significantly more than the analysts predicted. The forecast promised increase of the personal income and the personal spending. They proved to be wrong, as the indicators were almost unchanged. The Standard & Poor�s 500 Index dropped 0.3 percent


The focus of concerns turned nowadays from Europe to the US, where fears of the double-dip recession plague the traders. In this kind of environment the yen thrives in its role of the safe currency.


USD/JPY rose from 86.50 to 85.81 today as of 19:21 GMT. EUR/JPY traded near 113.52, while GBP/JPY traded at about 136.82.


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Canadian Dollar Falls as Economic Outlook Worsens

Canadian DollarThe Canadian dollar weakened today as the bad economic data from the US, Canada�s biggest trading partner, caused the pessimism about Canada� economic growth.


The job reports from US and Canada should have great impact on the markets, and the traders aren�t very hopeful about these reports. Canada�s employers added 12,500 jobs in July, according to the analysts� estimates, while in the US the non-farm payrolls expected to fall by 60,000 the last month. Today reports from the US showed that number of the pending home sales and the factory orders decreased, while the Americans earned and spent less money than anticipated.


Canada�s currency weakened against 12 of 16 most traded currencies. The level above 1.30 of the USD/CAD currency pair is the good opportunity to buy the loonie for the dollars. USD/CAD is unlikely to fall below 1.20 in the near future.


USD/CAD rose to 1.0239 from 1.0228 today as of 16:51 GMT after it advanced as high as 1.0273. EUR/CAD went up to 1.3543 from 1.3478.


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Kiwi Strengthens on Positive Data from Asia

New Zealand dollarThe New Zealand dollar strengthened today as the signs of improving global economy and the accelerating economic growth in Asia, particularly in China, causes the speculation that the demand for the currency will rise.


The MSCI Asia Pacific Index of shares climbed 0.6 percent. China demonstrated the stable economic growth, bolstering the kiwi as China is New Zealand�s second biggest export market. The positive economic data encourages the analysts to say that the kiwi would jump past its resistance levels versus other currencies.


USD/NZD rose to 0.7335 from 0.7325 as of 9:49 GMT, following the slump to 0.7298.


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South Korean Won Climbs on Record Reserves

South Korean wonThe South Korean won strengthened today, reaching the highest level in more than two months after the nation�s foreign-exchange reserves climbed to the record level.


The nation�s reserves jumped to $285.96 billion in July from $274.22 billion in the month earlier. The reserves were boosted by the gains of the euro and the pound. The government announced that it�s going to take measures to stabilize the currency.


USD/KRW dropped to 1,171.50 from 1,172.40 today as of 8:48 GMT.


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Tuesday, August 3, 2010

Swiss Franc Fall Despite Record Industrial Activity

Swiss francThe Swiss franc fell today against the US dollar and the euro, as the rally of the equities damped the demand for the currency as the safe haven, despite of the favorable fundamentals.


The Stoxx Europe 600 Index climbed as much as 1.9 percent. The rally of the stocks outweighed the data, showing that the industrial activity reached the all-time record. The SVME PMI rose from 65.7 in June to 66.9, the all-time highest level, the last month.


USD/CHF rose from 1.0402 to 1.0441 today as of 10:45 GMT, jumping earlier this day as high as 1.0475. EUR/CHF climbed from 1.3588 to 1.3652 after it reached 1.3697.


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Pound Rises as UK Economy Grows

Great Britain poundThe Great Britain pound strengthened today against the US currency to the highest level in almost six months as the economic data showed that Britain�s economy expanded faster than the analysts anticipated.


The gross domestic product increased 1.1 percent in the second quarter of 2010, compared with the increase of 0.3 percent in the previous quarter. The experts predicted the 0.6 percent growth. The manufacturing PMI posted 57.3 in July, down from 57.6 in June. Even though the PMI declined to the five-month low, it remained above the survey average of 51.1 and in line with that recorded for Q2 2010 (57.9).


GBP/USD traded at 1.5812 today as of 11:23 GMT, after opening at 1.5725 and reaching 1.5818, the highest level since February 4th.


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Aussie Strengthens on Economic Growth

Australian dollarThe Australian dollar reached today the highest level in almost three months versus its US counterpart and advanced against the Japanese yen as the signs of the robust economic growth supported the outlook for the unchanged interest rates and spurred the demand for the higher-yielding assets. The currency fell versus the euro.


The Australian retail sales in June, which will be reported tomorrow, estimated to rise by 0.4 percent after previous increase of 0.2 percent. The Chinese economy may also bolster Australia�s currency as China is Australia�s largest trading partner. China�s economic growth, while slower than in the first quarter, remains quite significant.


Katie Dean, the senior economist at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd., commented on this matter:



We feel pretty positive about the outlook in Asia, particularly in China. The Aussie and kiwi will be supported.


The good economic data should encourage the policy makers of the Reserve Bank of Australia to keep the interest rates at the current 4.5 percent level on the tomorrow�s meeting.


AUD/USD jumped to 0.9127 from 0.9060 as of 19:40 GMT today after reaching 0.9145. AUD/JPY rose from 78.29 to 78.92. following advance to 79.29. EUR/AUD traded near 1.4426 after dropping as low as 1.4305.


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Aussie Strengthens on Economic Growth

Australian dollarThe Australian dollar reached today the highest level in almost three months versus its US counterpart and advanced against the Japanese yen as the signs of the robust economic growth supported the outlook for the unchanged interest rates and spurred the demand for the higher-yielding assets. The currency fell versus the euro.


The Australian retail sales in June, which will be reported tomorrow, estimated to rise by 0.4 percent after previous increase of 0.2 percent. The Chinese economy may also bolster Australia�s currency as China is Australia�s largest trading partner. China�s economic growth, while slower than in the first quarter, remains quite significant.


Katie Dean, the senior economist at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd., commented on this matter:



We feel pretty positive about the outlook in Asia, particularly in China. The Aussie and kiwi will be supported.


The good economic data should encourage the policy makers of the Reserve Bank of Australia to keep the interest rates at the current 4.5 percent level on the tomorrow�s meeting.


AUD/USD jumped to 0.9127 from 0.9060 as of 19:40 GMT today after reaching 0.9145. AUD/JPY rose from 78.29 to 78.92. following advance to 79.29. EUR/AUD traded near 1.4426 after dropping as low as 1.4305.


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Monday, August 2, 2010

Indian Rupee Boosted by Increase of Interest Rates

Indian rupeeThe Indian rupee rose today after the central bank increased the interest rates for the fourth time this year, raising the yield on local assets.


The Reserve Bank of India raised the overnight borrowing rate by 50 basis points on July 27. The yield on the Indian securities maturing in 10 years rose to 7.8 percent. The currency also strengthened as the government plans to sell its shares of Engineers India Ltd.


USD/INR fell to 46.5350 from 46.5370 as of 9:49 GMT today.


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Dollar Weakens vs. Yen & Pound on GDP & Confidence Reports

US DollarThe US dollar fell against the Japanese yen today to the lowest level since November 2009 after the economic report suggested that the US economic growth slows, decreasing the appeal of the US currency.


The growth of the gross domestic product slowed in the second quarter of this year to the annual rate of 2.4 percent from the growth of 3.7 percent in the first quarter. The University of Michigan index of the U.S. consumer sentiment dropped sharply from 76.0 in June to 67.8 in the July.


The second quarter of 2010 was worse for the U.S. economy that the first quarter. July was particularly bad for the U.S. currency. The market analysts think that one of the main reasons for the downturn is the dovish sentiment of the Fed. James Bullard, the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, stated yesterday that the U.S. economy is heading to the Japanese-style deflation.


USD/JPY tumbled to 86.38 from 86.77 today as of 16:18 GMT after it reached the lowest level this year � 85.96. GBP/USD extended its rally, rising from 1.5610 to 1.5710, after falling to 1.5551. EUR/USD fell to 1.3065 from 1.3076 after touching 1.2980, but currently rises.


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Franc Rises Against Euro on Signs of Improving Economy

Swiss francThe�Swiss franc rose reached today the�highest level this week against the�euro after the�leading economic indicators remained at�the�highest level in�almost four years.

The�KOF Economic Barometer remained at�2.23 in�July, the�highest level since September 2006. The�currency was also bolstered by�the�speculation that the�Swiss National Bank began selling its dollar reserves.

Daragh Maher, deputy head of�global currency strategy at�Credit Agricole SA, said:

Economic numbers have improved and�I�guess the�SNB is less concerned now about downside risks in�the�economy. For�some time now, they�ve been selling the�euro that they accumulated during the�intervention to�weaken the�franc.

The�SNB expected to�raise the�interest rates by�quarter of�percentage point in�September and�again by�the�same amount in�December.

EUR/CHF went down to�1.3585 from 1.3612 as�of�17:20 GMT after reaching 1.3509. USD/CHF traded at�1.0413, near its opening level of�1.0408.

If you want to�comment on�the�Swiss franc�s recent action or�have any questions regarding this currency, please, feel free to�reply below.

Earlier News About the Swiss Franc:

This entry was posted on Friday, July 30th, 2010 at 7:20 pm and is filed under Swiss Franc. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can skip to the end and leave a response. Pinging is currently not allowed.

Very Bad Week for US Currency

US DollarThe�US dollar performance was abysmal this week as�concern about the�slowdown of�the�US economic growth persists and�even the�good news weren�t able to�weaken the�fears. The�dollar fell versus all other major currencies this month.

The�manufacturing sector showed the�signs of�the�weakness and�the�GDP slumped in�the�second quarter of�2010. It�s not surprising that the�reports show that the�consumer sentiment steadily declines. The�Americans are also worried about their employment, despite the�number of�the�jobless claims is decreasing.

In�the�environment of�the�uncertainty the�Japanese yen thrives, rising against the�dollar for�the�most part of�the�week. The�Great Britain were rising for�seven days, even on�Wednesday, when it could go below opening level, but closed slightly above it. The�euro fell on�Friday, but overall the�week was bullish for�the�16-nation European currency.

EUR/USD rose to�1.3031 from 1.2893 this weak after reaching as�high as�1.3106. GBP/USD went up form 1.5412 to�1.5689, while USD/JPY currency pair closed at�86.39 after opening at�87.54.

If you want to�comment on�the�US dollar�s recent action or�have any questions regarding this currency, please, feel free to�reply below.

Earlier News About the US Dollar:

This entry was posted on Saturday, July 31st, 2010 at 10:20 am and is filed under US Dollar. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can skip to the end and leave a response. Pinging is currently not allowed.